Important: VAERS reports alone cannot determine if a vaccine caused an adverse event. Reports may contain incomplete, inaccurate, or unverified information. Correlation does not equal causation.
35 Years of VAERS Reporting
From 2,214 reports in 1990 to 768,706 in 2021 — and the journey back to baseline.
Three Eras of VAERS
The history of VAERS reporting can be divided into three distinct eras:
Era 1: Early VAERS (1990-2006)
VAERS started small with just 2,214 reports in its first year. Through the 1990s and early 2000s, annual reports hovered around 10,000-18,000. This was a period of steady, predictable growth as the system matured and awareness increased.
Era 2: Growth Period (2007-2019)
Starting around 2007, reporting jumped to 30,000-50,000 per year. Several factors drove this: the introduction of new vaccines (HPV, rotavirus), increased digital reporting infrastructure, and growing public awareness of VAERS. The pre-COVID decade (2010-2019) averaged about 40,051 reports per year.
Era 3: COVID and Beyond (2020-Present)
The COVID-19 vaccination campaign caused an explosive spike in 2021 (768,706 reports). Since then, reporting has declined 95% from the peak. By 2025, annual reports (40,283) are approaching pre-COVID levels, suggesting the system is returning to its historical baseline.
Return to Baseline
The decline from the 2021 peak is significant and expected. As COVID-19 vaccination rates dropped, booster uptake declined, and the heightened awareness of VAERS faded, reports returned toward pre-pandemic levels. This pattern confirms that the spike was driven by the pandemic context, not a permanent change in reporting behavior.
Key Takeaways
- 1.VAERS has gone from ~2K reports/year to a peak of 769K, reflecting system growth and the COVID spike
- 2.Post-COVID reporting has declined 95% from the 2021 peak, approaching pre-pandemic levels
- 3.The return to baseline suggests the spike was context-driven, not a permanent shift